Exploring the Unknown: Predicting the Responses of Publics not yet Surveyed

Inglehart, R. & Welzel, C.
This article argues that cultural change is roughly predictable: to a large extent, it is shaped by a few variables included in a model of cultural modernization that is presented here. The beliefs and values of a society's people are also affected by unique world events and country-specific factors that would not fit into a general model, such as a given society's political parties and leaders, so our predictions will not be precisely accurate. Nevertheless, in this article we will stick our necks out and predict the locations on two major cultural dimensions of all the countries likely to be included in the next wave of the World Values Survey, to be carried out in 2005/2006. Using a simple predictive model based on our revised version of modernization theory, we first "predict" and test the positions that 80 societies should have on a two major dimensions of cross-cultural variation in the most recent wave of surveys (carried out in 1999/2001); we find that our predictions are surprisingly accurate: the average prediction for a given country falls within a small radius of the location that is actually observed on the cross-cultural map (specifically: the average prediction and the actual location fall within a circle that occupies less than two percent of the map's area). We then use this same model to predict the survey responses that we expect to find for 120 countries that are most likely to be surveyed in the next wave of surveys, in 2005/2006. Almost half of these countries have not been included in our previous surveys (and a number have never been covered in any survey of which we are aware). These are genuine blind predictions / which we believe is an important challenge for social scientists. Our predictions will not be exactly correct; in some cases, they will not even be in the right ballpark. But we are confident that in the great majority of cases, they will come much closer to the observed results than would random guesses. We are confident that these a priori predictions will be reasonably close to the results obtained from actual fieldwork, because analysis of data from more than 60 societies surveyed in previous waves of the World Values Surveys and European Values Surveys indicates that cross-cultural differences in basic values have a surprisingly consistent relationship with economic development. The values and beliefs of mass publics vary a great deal cross-nationally, but they tend to vary in a roughly predictable way that can be derived from a revised version of modernization theory.

Exploring_the_Unknown_Predicting_the_Responses_of_Publics_not_yet_Surveyed.pdf [Download count:88]

(Click for more...)
 
 
View by Author
View by Title
Search text:
Analyzing National Change in Citizen Secularism Across Four Time Periods in the World Values Surveys [Li, Liman Man Wai & Bond, Michael H.]
Clashing Values: Cultural and Geopolitical Transformations of Post-Cold War Europe [Akaliyski, P., Welzel, C.]
Context Matters - The Effect of National-Level Factors on the Relationship between Socio-Demographic Characteristics of Individuals on Their Life-Satisfaction [Eichhorn, J.]
Cultural Differences on Values about Conflict, War, and Peace [Díez-Nicolás, J.]
Does Individual Secularism Promote Life Satisfaction? The Moderating Role of Societal Development [Li, Liman Man Wai & Bond, Michael H.]
Dynamics of Cultural Change: The Human Development Perspective [Abdollahian, M., Coan, T., Oh, H., Yesilada, B.]
Economic Individualism and Government Spending [Arikan, G.]
Evidencing and Explaining Democratic Congruence: The Perspective of Substantive Democracy [Welzel, C., Klingemann, H.-D.]
Evolution, Empowerment and Emancipation [Welzel, C.]
Examining Environmental Concern in Developed, Transitioning and Developing Countries - A Cross-Country Test of the Objective Problems and the Subjective Values Explanations [Running, K.]
Forms of Civic Engagement and Corruption: Disentangling the Roles of Voluntary Associations, Elite challenging Mass Movements and the Type of Trust within Social Networks [Griesshaber, N.]
From Materialist to Postmaterialist Happiness? [Delhey, J.]
Gender Egalitarianism and Religiosity in Egypt, Iran and Turkey: A 20-Year Overview [Parhizkari, S.]
Generalizing Trust - How Outgroup-Trust Grows Beyond Ingroup-Trust [Delhey, J., Welzel, C.]
Human Empowerment before Prosperity and Liberty [Blackmore, S.; van Eyden, R.]
Islam and Patriarchy: How Robust is Muslim Support for Patriarchal Values? [Alexander, A.C. & Welzel, C.]
Mapping the Cooperative Landscape: Spatializing an Intangible Social Capital Variable [Witte, A.E., Tensaout, M.]
Measurement Equivalence? A Tale of False Obsessions and a Cure [Welzel, C., L. Brunkert, R. Inglehart & S. Kruse]
Measuring Effective Democracy: A Defense [Alexander, A.C., Inglehart, R. & Welzel, C.]
Measuring Effective Democracy: The Human Empowerment Approach [Welzel, C., Alexander A.C.]
Misconceptions of Measurement Equivalence: Time for a Paradigm Shift [Welzel, C.; Inglehart, R.]
Nationalism, Liberalism and Human Nature: What Mearsheimer Gets Wrong [WIECHNIK, S.]
Peace Through Integration or Peace Through Separation? [Reher, S.]
Pitfalls in the Study of Democratization. Testing the Emancipatory Theory of Democracy [Welzel, C.; Inglehart, R.; Kruse, S.]
Religiosity and Attitudes towards the Involvement of Religious Leaders in Politics [Mueller, T.]
Religious Regimes and Prospects for Liberal Politics: Futures of Iran, Iraq, and Saudi-Arabia [Moaddel, M.]
Rethinking Measurement Equivalence: Why Non-Invariance Doesn’t Always Mean Incomparability [Zhirkov, K.; Welzel, C.]
Social Modernization and Political Tolerance in America [Dalton, Russell. J.]
Testing the Revised Theory of Modernization: Measurement and Explanatory Aspects [Dülmer, H.; Inglehart, R.; Welzel, C.]
The Dynamics of Migrants’ Values and their Relations with Human Development (1981 – 2014) [PIER FRANCESCO DE MARIA]
The Power of the Family: New Data Reveal the Role of the Historical Family as the Instigator of Disparate and Lasting Developmental Trajectories [Szoltysek, M., Poniat, R.]
The Road to Progressive Political Institutions: Revisiting the Link between Education and Democracy [Peyper, C.; van Eyden, R.; Blackmore, S.]
Two Contradictory Hypotheses on Globalization: Societal Convergence or Civilizational Differentiation? [Diez-Nicolás, J.]
Unity, Plurality and/or Hybridity? Assessing the Global Pattern of Political Cultures [Schubert, S.]
Value Structures and Dimensions: Evidence from the German WVS [Held, M., Mueller, J., Deutsch, F., Grzechnik, E., Welzel C.]
Values, Repression, and Subversion [Zavadkaya M., Welzel C.]
World Values Survey Response and Behavior. Emancipative and Secular Values Predict Cooperation, Protection of Property and Pro-Social Behavior [Kistler, D.; Thöni, C.; Welzel, C.]